By around ten to eleven on Saturday night, 96 dreams will have been shattered, and a few dented.
But chins up, there is a bit to learn from history. For a kick-off, last year’s winner Dorotas Wildcat was beaten in the first round by Rising Brandy, who won’t even have a chance to put matters right. Fate can be cruel.
Go back a further year and Wildcat was an impressive first round winner only to exit one round later. Meanwhile Astute Missile went from strength to strength.
And a reminder of how cruel fate can really be, Seamus Cahill’s future champ was beaten into third place with a track record performance from Murrys Act, whose tale is sadder still.
But what of the punters? Do you play on this plethora of short priced favourites or should we expect turn-ups in a field of such wide ranging abilities?
Towcester seemed like a punters paradise when they staged their inaugural Derby in 2017.
In the 32 races of the first round, 17 went to market leaders plus one joint favourite. There were seven winning odds-on favourites and four were beaten. There were no double digit winners.
Roll on a year for a very different story. Of the 26 heats, there were only eight outright winning favourites and four joint/co favs. The very first heat went to a 25-1 chance and six of the nine odds-on chances were turned over.
Of course this is a new track and a whole new set of circumstances. Can be learn anything from the statistics at the new Derby venue?
If we look at the bare bones of winning traps at Nottingham, there is no obvious bias. To date this year: T1-155, T2-152, T3-150, T4-153, T5-152, T6-151.
Of course that is all distances. It is being suggested in some circles that railers hold a big advantage over the 500 metre course.
Look closer and in the most recent 891 500 metre races, there does seem a small bias against trap five (14%), compared to trap 1 (18%), which is joint highest for winners. . . . with trap six.
Most likely to finish second? Trap 5 (19%).
