How likely are you to win a Nottingham 480 metre open race with 28.80 run? Probably or possibly? Or a 28.85 performance for Central Park’s 480 metres? Maybe the following table will be following table will be of some use to you.
We looked at open race winning times at all GBGB tracks going back to January 2017, up until this weekend – that is well over 10,000 races. We looked for the times that would win you 50% of the races – an average chance – and the top 10% – which we equate to an excellent chance.
We are not claim it to be scientific or foolproof, but hope you will agree, it makes for some interesting conclusion.
| Average
50% |
Excellent
90% |
|
| Belle Vue | ||
| 238 | 15.18 | 14.89 |
| 470 | 27.99 | 27.65 |
| 590 | 35.73 | 35.40 |
| 670 | 40.74 | 40.56 |
| Central Park | ||
| 265 | 16.40 | 16.16 |
| 450 | 27.48 | 27.14 |
| 480 | 29.20 | 28.86 |
| 500 | 30.20 | 29.82 |
| 642 | 40.31 | 39.86 |
| 265H | 16.73 | 16.56 |
| 480H | 29.70 | 29.18 |
| Crayford | ||
| 380 | 23.37 | 23.09 |
| 540 | 33.87 | 33.47 |
| 714 | 45.78 | 45.21 |
| 874 | 56.70 | 56.13 |
| 380H | 23.70 | 23.45 |
| 540H | 34.14 | 33.78 |
| Doncaster | ||
| 275 | 17.02 | 16.67 |
| 450 | 27.80 | 27.44 |
| 483 | 29.59 | 29.23 |
| 661 | 41.74 | 41.31 |
| Harlow | ||
| 238 | 14.83 | 14.66 |
| 415 | 26.17 | 25.86 |
| 592 | 37.79 | 37.34 |
| Henlow | ||
| 275 | 16.69 | 16.42 |
| 428 | 25.77 | 25.47 |
| 460 | 27.70 | 27.36 |
| 550 | 33.76 | 33.22 |
| 692 | 43.02 | 42.53 |
| Hove | ||
| 285 | 16.44 | 16.25 |
| 475 | 28.18 | 27.56 |
| 490 | 28.88 | 28.50 |
| 515 | 30.15 | 29.83 |
| 695 | 42.06 | 41.52 |
| Kinsley | ||
| 268 | 16.05 | 15.83 |
| 462 | 27.43 | 27.18 |
| 650 | 39.97 | 39.73 |
| Monmore | ||
| 264 | 15.38 | 15.21 |
| 416 | 24.65 | 24.42 |
| 480 | 28.50 | 28.13 |
| 630 | 38.37 | 37.83 |
| 684 | 41.43 | 40.88 |
| Newcastle | ||
| 290 | 17.07 | 16.78 |
| 480 | 28.70 | 28.31 |
| 640 | 39.20 | 38.75 |
| 670 | 40.91 | 40.46 |
| Nottingham | ||
| 255 | 15.15 | 14.96 |
| 305 | 17.85 | 17.62 |
| 480 | 28.89 | 28.53 |
| 500 | 29.95 | 29.59 |
| 680 | 41.79 | 41.43 |
| 730 | 44.94 | 44.14 |
| Pelaw Grange | ||
| 245 | 14.62 | 14.52 |
| 435 | 25.85 | 25.52 |
| 590 | 36.34 | 35.92 |
| Perry Barr | ||
| 275 | 16.29 | 15.99 |
| 480 | 28.62 | 28.33 |
| 660 | 40.43 | 40.16 |
| 710 | 43.14 | 42.85 |
| Peterborough | ||
| 250 | 15.12 | 14.97 |
| 435 | 26.29 | 25.79 |
| 620 | 38.71 | 38.15 |
| Poole | ||
| 250 | 14.99 | 14.76 |
| 450 | 26.59 | 26.31 |
| 640 | 39.29 | 38.70 |
| Romford | ||
| 225 | 13.56 | 13.37 |
| 400 | 24.13 | 23.87 |
| 575 | 35.50 | 35.08 |
| 750 | 47.39 | 46.86 |
| Shawfield | ||
| 480 | 29.10 | 28.69 |
| 500 | 30.14 | 29.92 |
| Sheffield | ||
| 280 | 16.11 | 15.90 |
| 480 | 27.94 | 27.62 |
| 500 | 29.02 | 28.67 |
| 660 | 39.38 | 38.95 |
| 720 | 43.42 | 42.95 |
| Sunderland | ||
| 261 | 15.80 | 15.58 |
| 450 | 27.10 | 26.77 |
| 640 | 39.69 | 39.20 |
| Swindon | ||
| 285 | 16.46 | 16.35 |
| 480 | 29.04 | 28.58 |
| 509 | 30.35 | 29.90 |
| 685 | 42.25 | 41.73 |
| Yarmouth | ||
| 277 | 16.33 | 16.12 |
| 462 | 27.77 | 27.27 |
| 659 | 40.71 | 40.40 |
