By Ben Clarke
This year’s Calne Racing Arc at Swindon looks to be as classy a renewal of the historic event since it turned up at the Wiltshire circuit, unfortunately courtesy of Walthamstow’s misfortunes, and the three semis over the stiff 480m course tonight will no doubt be subject to multiple views, even from some of the very best judges of greyhound races, especially given what is perceived to be a short run to the bend. However, armed with some additional information, having an open minded approach to rating a greyhound’s chance plus, more importantly, the value they behold when having a bet, it’s fair to say there will always be one or two worth backing.
The first of the three semi’s tonight is at 20.04 where Garryvoe Bobby has an obvious advantage on the clock and would appear to be ideally housed in Trap 1, a theory that not all Swindon regulars will subscribe to as Trap 1 can often result in a missed break for greyhounds that do not regularly run at the track and, as with Garryvoe Bobby, have been running out of the middle. The bottom line here is that you couldn’t be more impressed with a greyhound that was running the track for the first time, having likely had a disrupted preparation and not been seen for approaching three weeks (clocking an impressive 28.32 around Limerick back in February).
He did move off slightly on the run up last time but with Droopys Costa, who pinged but moved directly right at the traps in the heats, and Droopys Turin, who always shifts left towards the rail from lid rise at Swindon, likely to come together in 2 and 3 it means Garryvoe Bobby in 1 will almost be guaranteed a run on the inside. Of the three others, both of Kevin’s (Hutton), Dorotas Del Mar (Trap 4) and Huarache Finn (Trap 6), look set to get runs courtesy of the inside tussle, especially when you consider that Finn in 6 is a length faster than Coolavanny Rebel in 5 to the second and third bends, on personal timings.
That brings us to value and betting and at 5/4 Garryvoe Bobby is around the right price, although will only shorten, so is actually worth a small bet, all things considered, even if you want to trade out of part of it later on, as he’s likely to go off odds-on. Unfortunately there isn’t much room to manoeuvre with many of the others but if Huarache Finn or Dorotas Del Mar drift to bigger than the current 11/2 each of two then they will represent a touch of value, as even if you were to back the three at current prices, which equates to 1/3, it means you’re laying the rest of the field at 3/1 and that doesn’t actually seem too bad considering you can easily put a line through all of them, for reasons already explained. You never know there may be some place value against the favourite when the race is live but the favourite does look a class act.
The second semi is, again, draw dependent and we see one of the fastest heat winners, Astute Missile, moving into red from the middle and a plot draw for Brinkleys King in T6, the fastest in the lineup. There is no doubt that Astute Missile is a very fast greyhound, who is progressively taking to Swindon and has the added bonus that he can race from the front or dig in from behind but, even though he’s got little to do, on personal timings, to guarantee a handy position by the halfway mark, he cannot afford too much of a blip at trap rise.
First bend timings for the Seamus Cahill pair of Astute Missile and Brinkleys King put them within a head of each other (5.32 Astute vs 5.30 Brinkleys) yet Brinkleys King clearly drove the bends better and came out of the second over a length in front in the first round (12.96 vs 13.05), which was an advantage he maintained until the third bend where Brinkleys King clocked 15.87 vs 15.96 for Astute Missile. Add into the mix here the other heat winner, Castell Henry (5.32, 13.02, 15.94), and we’ve got three greyhounds that are clearly very closely matched.
The betting represents this view and the bookmakers are currently going 5/2 the field, which is a very fair price about Brinkleys King. Oscar Whiskey came away well enough in the heats but eased off the bend slightly, Barricane Tiger is held on the form with Astute Missile and Oscar Whiskey and Castell Henry, despite an impressive run and some good splits, moved to the rails and noticeably cut in at the bend. That actually means that Astute Missile, versatile as he is, will get a run up the rails and rates the only danger to Brinkleys but as Charlie’s Oscar Whiskey is always popular and Brinkleys is the obvious shout, it may pay to wait a bit and the 7/2 about Astute Missile could be a touch bigger by trap rise. Regardless of that 5/2 and 7/2, which equates to basically Evens coupled, is tremendous given a 6/4 forecast SP about trap 6 alone!
The focus of the last semi will partly be on trap 6 Glenkeel, who scorched round and surprised a few people in the first round when clocking 28.44 (+10). It’s pretty obvious that Glenkeel, in his 5 ¾ length rout of a decent field, clocked the fastest sectionals by some considerable margin and a repeat would make him hard to beat in a line-up that features some inconsistent starters. However, and contrary to the previous theory to a degree, Lenson Rocky ran the track out of Trap 1 as well as any newcomer to Swindon, almost like an inside hare attached to the running rail. We know he’s good and we now know he can break out of the red box, which will only get better with experience too. Last year’s Derby Finalist, he’s been off for a bit, so can only get stronger, is capable of some insanely fast times and clearly likes the track.
He’s over a length faster than every dog in the race around the first two bends, apart from Glenkeel and Ela Alecko, and has the perfect draw inside some greyhounds that are going to cross each other’s paths. You can bet Lenson Rocky at 11/8, which may sound short, but he rates an 8/11 shot and will be closer to the latter than the former when the market settles down. It’s hard to make a case for Savana Donie or Huarache Scotty, as they are destined to bunch at some point, looking for the same ground and carrying the same profiles. Glenkeel is under-priced for what may be a flash-in-the-pan performance, which leaves two very big priced greyhounds to back the favourite up, if you want to have a saver.
Ela Alecko is yet to really set Swindon alight but does boast some impressive form in Ireland and tonight looks set to turn second on the inside to Lenson Rocky, with his 13.08 second bend split outdoing Savana Donie (13.24) and Huarache Scotty (13.17) by some margin. He can be backed at 12/1, which represents double his true odds. In addition Black Zack, who insultingly has been put in at 16/1 and will be on the drift after some have got stuck into Rocky, is another at a very big price that you can save with. He looked to peck at the start in the heats, got bunching at the first bend and crowding at the third and still wasn’t too far away. The three greyhounds at 11/8, 16/1 and 12/1 represent a shade of odds on (4/5) coupled, which may seem poor but is excellent if the fav goes off at 4/6! Overall though, Rocky is worth a punt and looks the the best bet on the card.
