Preview of the William Hill St.Leger first round with full form
Ht1. The first heat, for four runners (Droopys Smasher in season) sees Oneco Melissa trading at around evens (Bet354) with Maireads Field best at 7-4 (various), Mad For It 9-2 and Southern Saint at prices up to 40-1.
It is quite obvious why Melissa is favourite, but 4-5f? How much is to do with the reputation of her trainer?
There is no reason to support former Hove A6 runner Southern Saint, a winner of nine of his 66 races. Mad For It, now slimming down after early puppy races in Ireland, has been successful over course and distance but still looks novicey.
The selection is therefore Maireads Field who beat Ferryforth Fran last time out at Towcester (Fran would be favourite here) and clocked a very reasonable 28.85 (-20) in his trial.
Ht2. Romany Rouge (11-10 Black Type, generally evens or shorter) heads the market in the second heat. The Peterborough runner is experienced, fully exposed and set for a clear run. At his best, late last year and early 2016, he would destroy this field. But how close is he to that form? He would certainly need to step up on that Peterboroough trial. Ribble Atom (7-2) looks poor value – her six bend record is nothing special. Mustang Golden would be considerably shorter than 7-2 on his Grand Prix form. Strides Hugo is yet to prove himself away from Perry Barr and ran a poor trial. Stellas Veekayee is untested over course and distance.
Despite probably needing the run, the selection is Romany Rouge.
Ht3. Diego Flight is generally rated a 7-4 chance for his first race back after serious injury. He has trialled brilliantly, including a 28.39 run for 480m. His two biggest dangers appear to be the Irish trained Jaytee Patriot and Billys Bullet.
Paul Hennessy’s Patriot went out of the English Derby in the first round but is now an established stayers with three wins in his last six races, including a marathon defeat. Billys Bullet continues to run with great consistency.
The big question is, can Diego Flight hold out for six bends after such a long break? It is a punting kennel so follow the money. If Diego drifts, then Billys Bullet at 11-4 doesn’t look bad value.
Ht 4 The fourth heat is not the toughest on paper and Huarache Madison (evens) looks comfortably the best in the field and is our nap.
Admittedly her form looks a bit skimpy, five races in Britain, and two in Ireland, but they have been in top company. Her 28.47 (calc) for 525 at Galway is exceptional, as was her defeat of Droopys Tamera at Doncaster.(You might even fancy some of the 25-1 ante post with Bet365).
Coney Cashen, who ran Billys Bullet to just over a length looks the obvious danger tonight but 5-2 looks a bit skinny.
Ht 5 Anitas Baby (4-6f) is remarkably short in possibly the poorest of the eight qualifiers. The Hall Green A1 runner has the best form in the event though the odds looks look incredibly slim. Presumably there must be some inspired money from a kennel who have been known to have a punt?
Leaving well alone, TV trophy finalist Spa Road Piper will have followers, but how about Swift Hansel? He has only recently moved up to six bends after winning four-bend opens at Nottingham – he ran Tynwald Baz to two lengths.
Put it this way, if Oneco Melissa – who Hansel ran to half a length last time out – was in this heat she would be considerably shorter than the 5-1 Ladbrokes currently have on offer.
Ht 6 This is the heat for Rubys Rascal to lose. As such it may not be so much a case of finding the winner, simply backing or laying the favourite who will probably start at around 1-3f.
Mark Wallis’ runner has won his last two competitions, has won at tracks as diverse as Romford and Towcester (plus Doncaster, Newcastle and Sheffield), but been beaten in all attempts at Hove and Romford).
But then in races in excess of 600 metres, he has nine wins from 11 outings.
If he does give away a few lengths due to the lack of experience of the circuit, its 6-1 Digby Mia and Dashing Lane, 14-1 Dashing Star and Slick Sebastian.
How about a silly fiver on Digby Mia?
Ht7 Of all the will he, won’t he, question marks being asked, the biggest concerns Cloran Paddy who is surely the only dog ever to start ante post favourite to win the Leger without ever having trialled or raced over six bends?
Form students who have followed the career of Cloran Paddy will have mixed views.
He does look as though he will stay, and he looks certain to get a clear run in a four-runner race. Win he might, win he should, but not at 2-5.
The value is with Roxholme Hottie – 3-1 various.
Ht 8 The night finishes with a cracking finale. The last time Milldean Puma met Fizzypop Buddy was in the Corn Cuchulainn and Puma came out on top by five lengths. They are virtually inseparable in the betting tonight.
Buddy supporters will point to their dog’s love of Plough Lane and the question mark that hangs over Puma’s stamina, particularly if he doesn’t get things all his own way in the early stages.
The early paced Meadow doesn’t really get this trip but she could make life very complicated for her neighbours and there might be better value on the wide outside for the consistent and frequently overlooked Ferryforth Fran (9-2).
