Every year my nan used to buy a book called Old Moore’s Almanack. Google tells me that it was first published in 1697 by the ‘self taught physician and astrologer’ Francis Moore.
If you’ve never seen it, it is a paperback crammed full of interesting and insightful (!) predictions for the following year. In realiy, their predictions come good about as often as my eight match accas.
However, the Almanac is evidence that while you can’t fool all of the people all of the time, there have been more than enough mugs to keep it going for 324 years.
In roughly a tenth of that time, Editors Chair has, in its own small way attempted to emulate the 19th century chancer.
The problem with predictions is that ‘the biggies’ are the hardest to predict.
Example – four years ago: Bookmaker controlled BAGS have a game changing row with bookmaker controlled SIS.
BOOM!! GMG formed – Big breakaway – Hills, GRA, Central Park and Nottingham tracks sold to the newest, biggest player in the industry, Arena Racing Company.
Two years ago: Covid! Who saw that coming? Tracks closed never to re-open. Bettings shops took a hammer blow, on-line boomed to a point it is impossible to imagine the old order ever returning.
The alliance between ARC and Entain for greyhound content (though not horses – Entain recently renewed their contract with SIS for RMG racing) agreed last November (allegedly) will dominate the next two years. Not a prediction, an inevitability.
But what is that about – really?
Well in two years time, the ARC/GMG/Entain group will theoretically comprise of possibly 14 tracks. Way more than they need.
Imagine – only joining some dots here – that Entain saw a possibility of selling off their tracks. In Hove and Romford they have the two most lucrative building plots in the industry – by far. Crayford would probably be third in line. And what about the Hove kennels at Albourne?
Imagine then – that the Entain board see an opportunity to trouser the guts of £80-90m? At the same time they sign a contract with ARC for continued supply of product for their remaining betting shops for X years? Five years with a five year option?
Of course they could sell the lucrative sites and buy somewhere cheaper. As Suffolk Downs proves, your dog track doesn’t need to be sitting on ground at £3m an acre. In addition, potato fields don’t complain about the noise or parking and are the ideal locations to allow the antis to do a bit of shouting.
Why would they want to sell?
Well the sole reason that the big betting firms bought dog tracks in the first place was simply – something they have never denied – was to ensure they could never be held to ransom by the track owners.
I also have long had a theory that ARC have a long term aim that goes beyond simply owning horse and dog tracks. It makes natural sense that since they ultimately control ‘product’ (with 16 horseracing venues), why not also handle the betting too?
In the past, that would have necessitated owning betting shops. But can anyone seriously argue that they are not in terminal decline? A process only hastened by the pandemic. (Shop turnover was down 26.4% in the year before Covid!!)
Why not ‘integrated digital gambling’ too, with or without Entain, who themselves look set to be gobbled up by even bigger global gambling players in the future?
Whatever the plan – there WILL be one. You don’t go and buy a string of dog tracks on a whim.
On the plus side? These guys will develop far more efficient opportunities to exploit their product. The betting model for greyhound racing only suits Betfair and isn’t going to change without a new blueprint.
Unless there is one, this betting-shop-dependent-industry doesn’t have five years left.
Continuing to gaze into the crystal ball, it can’t be long until ARC/Entain set up a more substantial alternative to RPGTV.
SKY Racing is a limited option. Indeed, SKY as a business is going to come under increasing pressure from digital providers. I read recently that even Disney plans to launch a betting platform.
I had actually formulated much of this article before the recent announcement of Premier Greyhound Racing, and that looks like the chassis for a bigger vehicle still to be announced. They also already have a very decent support App in Greyhounds.Today.
I wonder whether any of the current RPGTV presenters have already been tapped up? (It might explain a few things).
Then of course there is a wider outlook of the industry.
Just looking at the SIS side of affairs, Kevin Boothby has continued to convert stables to kennels, on-site at Towcester. With gallops and a new veterinary hospital, it is almost a mini-Northaw.
He also has other kennels with expansion options in Lincolnshire, including facilities for breeding. I am told Harlow are building new kennels on-site and Doncaster have expanded kennel options at Anneleise Thompson’s old range.
Is this the new model for greyhound racing? Is it not inevitable that tracks will need to own their own racing dogs for the daytime slots that will never appeal to a traditional owner?
At least in the case of Towcester, their business model would allow for weekend evening racing even prior to the seemingly inevitable Friday (or possibly Oxford?) and Saturday evening betting shop service for SIS come January 2024.
But maybe some tracks are looking in the profit columns and are already considering a future without any traditional owners and customers?
