Ratings and Analysis by Pete Walker
The most prestigious race in our greyhound calendar is of course the Derby relocated to Towcester with a huge top prize of £175,000 and a minimum of £5,000 for the finalists as well as a breeder’s reward. A big thank you must go to Star Sports for taking over sponsorship of our blue riband event this year as we now approach the third round.
A total of 188 greyhounds contested the first round which consisted of 133 railers, 23 middle and 32 wides, of which 19 were bitches. As far as greyhound draws are concerned, another option to consider could be we include preferred trap positions to the existing seedings (subject to approval from an independent authority of course).
For example R123 (bang railer), R324 (rail to middle), M435 (natural middle), W654 (genuine wide). This should mean more greyhounds get allocated their most appropriate box resulting in safer racing and also an advantage to be drawn out early (more discussions on this subject I’m sure in the future). We have not been short of drama in the first two weeks, that’s for certain. The fate of the favourites (including joint) in the first two rounds resulted in 25 winners (50%), 14 additional qualifiers (25%) and 11 eliminated (22%).
Not only that, but of the top 43 (14/1 to 80/1 range) in the early ante post betting, 21 have gone out with 22 still in the competition. 4 bitches also remain. The biggest price runner still in the event where the dream lives on belongs to Romeo Treaty (1000/1), trained by Pat Doocey (Perry Barr) and owned by Mr A.P. Hingley. The layers have trimmed his odds to a mere 750/1 so don’t appear unduly concerned (but what a story that would be!).
As usual, comparative ratings with the top three from each race are indicated as well as the overall top fifteen and latest available prices. Incidentally, I am now adjusting all split times based on my confirmed assessment of the official going allowances in my calculations. The use of additional sectional timings by Towcester is a great innovation which I would like to be made available regularly, especially in open racing.
Third Round Heat 1
T1 (R) – 194: Carn Brea (11/4)
T2 (R) – 187: Pacey Bambi (11/4)
T6 (W) – 165: Sallows Ford (14/1)
Third Round Heat 2
T1 (R) – 190: Bruisers Bullet (5/4)
T3 (R) – 190: Shaneboy Freddie (4/1)
T4 (R) – 183: Ballinakil Clare (b) (8/1)
Third Round Heat 3
T6 (W) – 184: King Eden (7/2)
T3 (R) – 172: Droopys Buick (10/11)
T2 (R) – 168: Cloran Paddy (3/1)
Third Round Heat 4
T5 (R) – 168: Ballymac Sarahjo (b) (12/1)
T6 (W) – 162: Jaytee Jet (6/4)
T3 (R) – 161: College Paradise (2/1)
Third Round Heat 5
T2 (R) – 187: Priceless Brandy (11/8)
T4 (R) – 186: Jaytee Yankee (14/1)
T1 (R) – 180: Clares Rocket (13/8)
Third Round Heat 6
T1 (R) – 189: Ballymac Matt (4/1)
T5 (M) – 187: Tyrur Shay (1/1)
T6 (W) – 183: Forest Con (5/1)
Third Round Heat 7
T3 (R) – 185: Hiya Butt (2/1)
T5 (M) – 164: Razldazl Tierna (7/1)
T1 (R) – 160: Velvet Blaze (10/1)
Third Round Heat 8
T5 (M) – 183: The Other Reg (7/2)
T3 (R) – 169: Coolavanny Mason (2/1)
T4 (R) – 165: Teejays Apache (14/1)
Top 15
(194): Carn Brea (50/1)
(190): Bruisers Bullet (14/1)
(190): Shaneboy Freddie (50/1)
(189): Ballymac Matt (40/1)
(187): Tyrur Shay (13/2)
(187): Pacey Bambi (50/1)
(187): Priceless Brandy (7/1)
(186): Jaytee Yankee (66/1)
(185): Hiya Butt (28/1)
(184): King Eden (50/1)
(183): The Other Reg (50/1)
(183): Ballinakil Clare (b) (80/1)
(183): Forest Con (40/1)
(180): Clares Rocket (10/1)
(172): Droopys Buick (16/1)
Ratings as in the past based on a maximum of 200 which reflect only recent performances over the course and distance. All 48 qualifiers have had at least two competitive races over the now 500m distance at the venue to judge their performances by, not just the previous round (nor based on reputations for that matter). Track conditions at the time of racing may affect future performances, although statistically in all the earlier heats, there has been no overall inside bias. In fact, traps 1-3 produced 17 winners; traps 4-6 accrued 31 winners. If the other qualifiers were also added to the successful boxes, the outcome is fairly even wherever drawn.
The most important facet to highlighting winners and qualifiers is essentially the break which comes as no surprise. The statistics of the victors based on sectional times were as follows: 30 (62%) winners were at the head of affairs, 11 (23%) were lying second, and consequently only 7 (15%) were positioned further back. It makes the performance of Calico Ranger coming from last to first even more remarkable, but will get harder as the contest hots up no doubt. Hopefully, the ratings may point you in the right direction if looking to bolster your ammunition against the layers or feel vindicated if sitting content with some much larger bets still going strong.
However, on the face of it, there appears to be both underrated and overrated greyhounds left in the Derby to mull over. Whichever way you decide, good luck to all in what has already been an enthralling spectacle. The final is Saturday 1st July and shown live on Sky Sports.
