Will your punting judgement be affected knowing that this evening’s 2024 ARC Cesarewitch heats are being run over 731m for the first time? But should it?
Roll back a year to the 2022 decider and Cochise, a dog whose last line of pre-Central Park form was a run over the Hove 695m where he had led and been caught by Lemming Extra, held on for a win. The future English Derby third had led and been caught in both heats and semi over the supposed 708m course.
But would he have started bigger than 5/1 had punters been aware that the incorrectly measured trip was actually 731m?
With absolute respect to connections of all last year’s finalists, the 2024 version looks altogether a tougher competition with several in the line-up for whom neither distance will offer any significant issues – particularly since last year’s event was staged prior to the track upgrade when the three rounds of the event were run on -100, -70 and -70.
The first heat should see Bubbly Scorcher go to traps as favourite. The Boxing Day Marathon winner – off a fabulous 540m sectional – has no stamina doubts with several of his opposition untried over this trip.
Haka Carlo, a littermate of Ballymac Taylor and Garfiney Blaze, has some exceptional Shelbourne Park form and looks far better value at 7/2. He has 41.50 winning form over Nottingham’s 680m and it is inconceivable that we won’t stay this trip.
Gutsy Jet definitely has some ability but is untried over this trip and has a tendency to find trouble. Might appreciate the big circuit though Sel 2-3-5
6/4 Bubbly Scorcher, 7/2 Haka Carlo, 9/2 Gutsy Jet, 5/1 Coonough Crow, 8/1 Alright Gordy, 12/1 Forest Leo.
Bellmore Sally returns to Kent where she already has three Cat One wins. She is certain to be supported, will see out the distance comfortably and is invariably fabulously prepared by Jimmy Fenwick (who doesn’t normally travel this far on his holidays!). She is though, the wrong side of her fourth birthday.
She currently jointly heads the market with Chris Hamblin’s Oxford specialist Ela Maestro. He has plenty to recommend him including 28.33 form for Shelbourne’s 525 yards, a 39.53 win at Oxford and an exceptional trial over this course and distance. That ante post price might look great value in the morning.
However, anyone who witnessed Mad For Sterling in the Bet365 Challenge Final at Oxford could not fail to be impressed. He came ‘from the clouds’ to almost catch Havana Top Note. His record is poor with just six wins from 22 runs but many of those were over four bends. This could be his track and his distance.
Rydons Ranger is the current 664m record holder. Sel 5-1-4
9/4 Bellmore Sally, Ela Maestro, 11/4 Mad for Sterling, 8/1 Maree Smasher, 8/1 Rydons Ranger, 25/1 Slapdash Tommy
The ante post favourite goes from red in his first race for Mark Wallis. Recognised as one of the top six bends in Ireland, Garfiney Blaze impressed in the opening round of the St.Leger at Perry Barr but was withdrawn off-colour from the semi finals. He is well drawn and should qualify comfortably though 5/2 to win out looks very short indeed.
Bradys Bullet’s reputation as a hound with huge potential dates back to the Monmore Puppy Derby Final where he was just incredible. Since then, it has been stop and start with no chance to show his best form. He needs things to drop into place so he can build some form, his ability is a given.
The betting has Alright Patricia as the likely third favourite, presumbly based on her recent Oxford marathon win which is just 20 spots outside Space Jet’s track record. Though she has no course knowledge.
Tory Bellatrix has very decent Towcester 712m form including a 43.12 win. She has also run Ballymac Taylor to a length. Bubbly Inferno is probably best known for her match race against Ballymac Taylor but is very short of recent form. Sel 1-2-5
8/11 Garfiney Blaze, 7/2 Bradys Bullet, 15/2 Alright Patricia, 8/1 Tory Bellatrix, 10/1 Bubbly Inferno, 25/1 Aayamza Dancer
The MWD Partnership are double handed in here with the event’s ante post second favourite Ballymac Taylor certain to head the market.
Often touted as ‘the next Space Jet’, this trip is on the short side for her though the huge circuit should give her ample opportunity to shine. Kennelmate Jacktavern Magic is a good seasoned pro who can mix it with the best and ran fourth in the Regency . He is also one of the widest runners in training so he should stay out of trouble.
Capel Rose is from a kennel that always punch beyond their weight. Rose has 44.86 (714m) form at Crayford and trialled well. If she was to break loose, 6/1 looks value. If there is a shock in store, it might just come from her. Sel 2-3-6
8/13 Ballymac Taylor, 3/1 Jacktavern Magic, 6/1 Capel Rose, 10/1 Maleficent, 20/1 Farneys Cooper, 25/1 Clear Mission
