THE NEW DERBY CIRCUIT – BY FIGURES

The merits of the new Derby circuit at Towcester is regularly debated among greyhound fans writes Floyd Amphlett.

“It only suits front running railers” is a common theme, as is “wide runners are a million”. It doesn’t seem so long ago that Wimbledon was being labelled ‘a track for the Laurels, not the Derby’ and ‘a pale imitation of White City’

So, what are the realities?

Here is a study into the 48 open races staged over the 500 metre course at Towcester so far this year. I deliberately avoided graded racing because, as the cynics might point out, ‘you can always hide an issue or a bias with careful grading’.

The first issue is – do you need to lead?

Of the 48 races, the eventual winner was leading at the sectional on 24 occasions. Exactly half. Put another way, 43 of the 48 winners were in the first three at the sectional.

But how does that compare?

I decided to looks at the first 48 races from last year’s Derby at Wimbledon. Number of winners leading at the sectional? 26. That is two more than Towcester.

How many eventual winners were in the first three at the sectionals? The answer was 43 – exactly the same as in the Towcester study. Out of interest, the only runner to come from last to first at Wimbledon was eventual winner Jaytee Jet when landing his second round heat.

Do railers have a huge advantage!

35 of the 48 Towcester races went to railers. That is almost 73%.

Middle seeds won six times and wide seeds won seven.

However, 177 of the 286 combined runners (62%) were seeded rails, compared to 67 middles (23%) and 42 wides (15%).

Based on those proportions, you would expect to see 30 railers 11 middles and 7 wide runners winning.

So, comparing the reality and theory, as might be anticipated, railers do have an advantage, though more over the middles than the wides.

So how does that compare with Wimbledon?

Here is a breakdown of the 27 Derby Final winning traps at Plough Lane

T1-3, T2-4, T3-4, T4-5, T5-4, T6-7

And the last 27 Derby winners at White City

T1-6, T2-4, T3-2, T4-7, T5-4, T6-4

So a guesstimate of the first 27 (28) Derby winners at Towcester, based on the study? (rounded up or down)

T1-6, T2-7, T3-4, T4-3, T5-4, T6-4

A couple of opinions. 1) Towcester is as different to Wimbledon, as Wimbledon was to White City.

2) Speaking to racing managers around the country, the biggest single issue that many face, more pressing than a general runner shortage, is the lack of wide runners available for grading. That shortage of wide seeds in general, may be as much of an issue going forward as the shape of the Towcester circuit.

Ten fastest race times

Ten (11) fastest winning sectionals