THE BIG DERBY DATA ROUND UP

With 60 of the 63 races of the 2019 Star Sports/ARC/LPS Greyhound Derby races complete, we have been trawling through some stats to acknowledge performances to date. Who has excelled and are there any clues to the fate of those final three contests? – writes Floyd Amphlett

To paraphrase that form guru Mary Poppins, ‘the beginning is a very good place to start’ and in this case we are referring to the good old fashioned sectionals.

The run between 500m traps and Nottingham winning line is 75 metres and three runners share the honour of being quickest Braveheart Bobby, Droopys Nadal and Magical Bale are the inseparable trio with identical clockings of 4.88.

Contrary to our previous coverage, it appears that they are not the fastest times recorded for the trip. Ice On Fire has recorded 4.86 with another unidentified graded runner having clocked a 4.85.

Bale appears again on the list with a 4.89 run while the unlucky Scottish Derby winner Braveheart Bobby also appears twice in the top six.

Moving up to the halfway sectionals and the recordings made by Mark Pierrepont using video footage and computer software.

Mark stresses that his ‘halfway’ mark may not be precisely 250 metres, but it is to within a couple of metres, and all times throughout all the rounds are consistently recorded to exactly the same marker.

Unsurprisingly, the times bear a very close relationship to the shorter sectionals with just three spots separating Magical Bale and Braveheart Bobby.

In fact, the table will make for good reading for the Hutton team with their dog appearing three times in the top ten, corresponding to his second and third round runs and quarter final.

As to the debate, which is the faster of the Hutton pair to the third bend, there is probably less than a length in it.

Can you apply these figures to the semi finals?

Almost certainly not, given trap draws and the sheer nature of chance, but for a bit of fun. . .

If they all bring their ‘A’ game to the first semi final, and avoid first bend trouble (!!), Magical Bale goes into the third bend with a lead of exactly one length over Ballyane Sim and Dorotas Wildcat who are inseparable.  Droopys Expert is half a length back in fourth, with a length and a quarter back to Priceless Blake and King Sheeran a similar distance back in last place.

In the second semi final, Queen Beyonce and Clonbrien Prince are inseparable at the third bend. Roxholme Glory is a length and a quarter back in third. Skywalker Logan has recaptured his track record breaking form and is a head behind in fourth. There is a gap of a length and three quarters back to Ballymac Tas, with Jaytee Taylor a further two and a quarter lengths back at the rear of the field.

Moving on to the second half of the race, and it might look as though we are dealing with two completely different competitions.

A quick glance at the table to the right and two things register very quickly. 1) The top of the table is dominated by the Irish due Skywalker Logan and Jaytee Taylor and 2) they are the only greyhounds in the top ten who are still engaged in the Derby.

So how would this all play out in our imagined semi finals?

Surprisingly, nobody takes an inch of the presumed front running Magical Bale who is one spot quicker than King Sheeran. In fact, there is only seven spots difference in performance between five of the six runners. Irish Derby winner Ballyanne Sim is at the end of his endurance limit and will lose at least two lengths on the field in the second half of the race.

Given Queen Beyonce and Clonbrien Prince are clear in the second semi final, they can expect to be reeled in by around two and a half and three and a half lengths by Logan and Taylor in the latter stages. To avoid being caught, Roxholme Glory would have to be the guts of five lengths clear of the Irish duo.

But we are not finished yet. The next table is a compilation of the top ten fastest runs in the competition – without any going allowances taken into consideration.

It is obviously headed by the track record run of Skywalker Logan, though Magical Bale is once again prominent being featured three times to Wildcat’s twice.

It is perhaps a reflection of the quality and consistency of the circuit that of the seven runners featured on the table, five have made it through to the semi finals.

Finally, one more indulgence in the ‘what if’ view of greyhound races. We have cobbled together the ‘best halves’ of the performances of each of the semi finalists.

Basically, it is their best run to halfway, added to the best run from halfway. No more explanation needed.

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