By Rob Abrey
It’s the semi finals of the Essex Vase tonight and with only two qualifying from each semi final, no greyhound can afford to make a mistake. By now most ante post bets have been placed so for tonight I will focus on each semi final and try to find where the value is.
The first semi final at 8.50pm is a humdinger. There is a St Leger winner, a Dundalk Sprint cup finalist, last years Essex Vase finalist and a Champions Stakes finalist all contesting for the two qualifying places. Throw in Roswell Romanov who is fast becoming the new Adageo Bob and Fivestar Clipper with eight wins over C&D from his last ten races you have yourself a semi final worthy of the final itself.
Roswell Romanov is best priced 4/6 with Corals to win the first semi final. Most other companies are 1/2 for the Mark Wallis trained charge to claim gold. I’m not going to suggest that and no other ‘tipster’ should either. The skill is looking for the value and there are key points to this race that could lead to Roswell Romanov getting beaten. The son of Quail Hollow and Kranky Leona is far from comfortable from trap one. From his last ten races over the 575 metres he has lost twice. Both those loses came from trap one. Admittedly last weeks heat win did come from trap one but the August ’14 whelp is not guaranteed such a clear run this time. On his outside is the equally fast starting Newlawn Peter that I’m sure will cause problems to Romanov in the early exchanges. With Peter breathing down his neck early on, for me the race opens up and allows the enigmatic Alfies Diamond to take advantage. From previous articles we know how much trainer Patrick Janssens thinks of his charge and have seen enough of him to know he doesn’t give up and can run on strong. Any scrimmaging in the race which looks certain and the son of Droopys Scolari and Momentinnewyork can take advantage. Several companies are offering 4/1 for him and that is way too big and should be considered.
The second semi final at 9.06pm sees a similar scenario to the first semi final. The impressive competition dog peregrine Falcon has taken to Romford brilliantly with two wins from two over C&D. We all know how consistent the John Mullins trained hound is, but what we don’t know is how he will cope from being in trap one. His previous two wins at Romford came from trap three. With that in mind I wouldn’t be overly keen to take the top price 8/11 being offered by Corals let alone the 1/2 general price. The value for me is in the form of Rubys Razzle. Trained by Mark Wallis the July ’14 whelp has enough early to keep in touch in the early exchanges but it is her ability to run on that makes her dangerous to the others. Compared to the others in the semi final she has the second fastest heat time of 35.44 seconds. The only one with a faster heat time is Peregrine Falcon who beat her by 2 ¼ lengths. He is best priced 8/11, she is best priced 10/1 with Bet365. For a difference of 2 ¼ lengths and with Falcon running from unknown territory I would be more than happy to take the 10/1 being offered.
The third semi final at 9.24pm is by far the most open in terms of the bookmakers odds. Kranky Damo was down to run from trap six but was withdrawn by trainer Seamus Cahill earlier in the week due to being off colour leaving the third semi final a five runner affair. Due to Kranky Damo’s withdrawal the race now opens up perfectly for the fast starting and aptly named Bubbly Torpedo. With no greyhound on his outside the Paul Young trained charged can take advantage with a trademark fast start and quickly take control of the race. As reported last week he has come back from a shoulder injury and will be much better for that run. With expected improvement on last week’s calculated time of 35.81 the 2/1 being offered by Betfred and Paddy Power should be snapped up. That price feels too big for a greyhound hitting full fitness and with no greyhound on his outside.
For those who like a forecast then putting Bubbly Torpedo with Thirteen Bags who impressed last week in defeat would for me be the way forward.
