Paul Horig
“Britain should have the best greyhound betting market in the world, given its population and betting culture.”
Not necessarily the sort of comment that one might expect to hear from an Aussie greyhound man.
However, as is invariably the case in life, more valid than the statement, is the person making it.
Only a fool would dismiss the insight of Paul Horig
A businessman turned professional gambler, Paul is now based in the Bahamas having made his reputation a well respected judge of a greyhound in Aussie racing circles.
But Horig’s dog nous is globally deeper. Paul loves track and field and has won the Irish Cup twice, most recently this year, with Gigantor.
On the tin bunny he has won a string of events including the Irish Laurels and Champion Stakes with One Time Only and the Shelbourne Open 600 with Fast Fit Paddy.
In Australia, he owned Queensland Greyhounds of the Year, Elusive Odie and Cool Marvel to name but two.
The bloke knows his dogs – and he knows his betting!
Paul has no doubt that Greyhound Racing Ireland’s recent initiative to reduce tote retention for 22.5% to 12.5% is a huge step in the right direction.
He said: “If you look at the best betting markets in the world, which I would suggest as Hong Kong, France and Japan, they are all tote based.
“In Australia we have both, tote and bookies, but they drive each other and keep each other competitive. That isn’t happening in England or Ireland.
“Bookies will take whatever they can get. We all know that. They want it all and it has ruined betting in Britain and Ireland”
Back in Paul’s native Australia, betting on greyhound racing continues to thrive. It passed the $(Aus)10bn mark (bookies and tote combined) for the first time in 2021/22 having risen from $5.9bn just five years earlier.
It has since declined with Greyhound Racing Victoria stating that their turnover was down 13% last year. That led to a prize money reduction down to $70m from $74.1m. But there are good reasons for that, according to Paul.
He said: “Everything is back. Big time. The horses, the dogs, the trots, everything. It was only to be expected. During Covid, the market went mad.
“People had nothing else to do apart from bet; it was inevitable that those habits would die down eventually, but overall dog racing is flying. There seems to be a $100,000 final nearly every week.”
In fact, greyhound racing continues to outperform other betting options.
In a 2022 interview with Aussie journalist Adam Dobbin, Topsport Chief Executive Officer Tristan Merlehan, whose company bets on all forms of gambling described greyhound racing as “. . . by far our fastest growing market.
“In the past five years our turnover growth on greyhound racing has gone from $38 million annually to $168 million.”
So why is tote betting so important?
Paul said: “Betting is all about churn. A punter will lose all his money in the end, but he needs to get value for his betting.
“If you take away 35% of his return, he soon runs out of money and stops playing. You need to keep the money circulating.”
Britain’s betting industry currently operate to overround odds of 28%.
What does Horig consider to be the optimum level of retention for the tote?
Paul said: “I think 10% is too low, just above that. 12.5% is about right. It is competitive. The Australian tote is 14.2%. In Hong Kong it is 17.5% on wins but slightly bigger on the more exotic pools.”
As flagged up in a recent Editors Chair – https://greyhoundstar.co.uk/against-the-odds/ the Rásaíocht Con Éireann opted for a 12.5% deduction experiment for the last three Saturday’s of the Irish Derby.
There will be no release of the Derby figures prior to a meeting of the organisation’s board of directors later this week.
However, their ever helpful Head of Marketing Orla Strumble reveals that the Board “are positive about the overall outcome and have had a very positive response with our track, intertrack and online activity being up considerably.
I know that the future of such a model will be considered by the Executive Team and Board of GRI once the full analysis is complete. . “
All of which sounds positive towards an extension of the scheme with Horig the first to point out that breaking old betting habits will be the hardest job.
But it can be done. From a standing start, Lifford, with a 10% tote deduction model, week on week continues to produce betting spend per head many times greater than more centrally located Irish venues.
Also – the Irish model does not allow for ‘rebaters’ (big punters who are given more advantageous odds) to thrive. An issue that has undoubtedly caused damage to even the robust Australian model.
A thriving betting industry will generate revenue and the importance of that is much greater than simply increasing prize money for owners and trainers.
Paul said: “We could have lost dog racing in Australia 19 years ago and it led to a major re-think of our industry.
“If things carry on the way they are in the UK and Ireland at the moment, the sport won’t survive. It would only take the Greens and Sinn Fein to win an Irish election and greyhound racing would be gone.
“Don’t leave your industry at the hands of the bookmakers. They don’t care. They will move on and bet on something else.
“Control the industry yourself and tote betting is the way to do it.”
