81 days

There are now 81 days until the biggest industry shake-up since the formation of the Greyhound Media Group in August 2016 and there WILL be repercussions for many within the industry.

Precisely what the fall-out will be is almost impossible to predict because there still seems to be some flexibility in the decision making and a lot of cards are being played close to chests.

On January 1, the Entain group will ‘switch sides’. The biggest provider of content to the SIS media outlet service will join forces with the opposition, ARC.

Even more significant, the Entain (Ladbrokes/Corals) betting shops will transfer their custom to ARC. Given they control more than 40% of the betting shop market, that will leave a big hole in SIS revenue.

All of the above is in the public domain but it doesn’t really get to the guts of the issue.

To do that, we have to go back in history. At the start of the new Millennium, Britain had 32 greyhound tracks.

By 2016 we were down to 25. Attendances were falling, the number of ‘non BAGS meetings’ were in freefall and the betting industry made a play of the ‘non-sustainability of so many tracks’.

I’m not going through the whole political process of what happened, but the three biggest High Street bookies: Hills/Ladbrokes/Coral went for broke. Their combined six tracks plus a hand picked addition of between four/six tracks (they never specified) could provide all the greyhound racing that the betting industry needed/was prepared to pay for.

But for the forsight of the GMG – it is almost certain that half of our tracks would have been wiped out in the Spring of 2017.

What has happened in the following seven years is just so far-fetched as to border on the bizarre.

A reminder of some of the bullet points:

• A group of tracks formed the Greyhound Media Group, ditched SIS, and announced an amalgamation with SIS’s sworn enemy, Arena Racing Company (ARC).
• In late 2016 Ladbrokes and Corals merged to form a company, since taken over and repackaged as Entain.
• William Hill sold their two greyhound tracks to ARC and have since sold all their betting shops
• ARC added to their portfolio by buying the remaining GRA tracks, plus Central Park and Nottingham.
• Kevin Boothby, re-opened Towcester, Oxford and Mildenhall. Ironically, Boothby’s original track, Henlow was one of those viewed as superfluous by SIS. Without him, SIS would have not had a service.
• Of the 11 original GMG tracks, only six remain.
• ARC reached agreement with Entain on a long term deal for greyhound racing content and Premier Greyhound Racing was born.

So roll on seven years and the betting industry are still telling us that there are too many tracks. Now though, greyhound folk might be a bit less sceptical.

Whether we are looking at races with as many empty traps as full ones, or the number of ex-racers unable to find a retirement sofa, the industry clearly has problems.

But it hasn’t been all bad. The ‘media rights war’ has seen trainers better rewarded than in living memory.

Some even appear to be taking advantage of their new found worth with the belief ‘they can’t sack me, they need my dogs’.

There is a proliferation of high value open race competitions – headed by the £20K PGR events.

The desperation for runners which has undoubtedly seen the decline in ability and integrity of the greyhounds, has resulted in even the slowest hound having a value.

Greyhound welfare has never been higher.

In short – the betting industry is finally paying the sort of cash that it should have been paying for the last 60 years.

But is it sustainable?

To a certain extent, that discussion is secondary.

While a vote within the industry would probably agree that there is indeed too much racing, it is a problem with no obvious solution.

It simply isn’t feasible to say, ‘just run a few less meetings, or fewer races’. Race twice a week instead of three times.

Try saying that to the former trainers at Belle Vue, Poole or Peterborough.

The latter is particularly interesting as it was a modern, well marketed business.

When their BAGS contract was reduced, the Fengate track couldn’t make it pay.

This isn’t just a greyhound issue. Speedway is in a far more precarious position than us with a string of teams set to disappear.

As for greyhound folk: ‘Well, if tracks have to close, just make sure it isn’t mine.’

When the Entain/ARC deal was announced 18 months ago the likelihood of a ‘one service’ model was revived.

There were though various factors to bear in mind.

Meetings:

Could SIS survive losing such a major contributor to their service? Conversely, how would ARC shoehorn the four Entain tracks into their schedule?

That question was answered back in May when the PGR schedule showed an increase of more than a third.

What of SIS? Would they be able to provide a workable service after losing Entain’s 22 meetings a week?

Sure, they will gain Valley for possibly two meetings per week and Askern, though rumours suggest the former Yorkshire flap will not be quite ready on January 1.

There are also question marks over Henlow which is subject to a legal battle over its lease – due to be sorted next month.

Of course having tracks and being able to provide an adequate service are two different things and that applies to both service providers.

Valley will presumably take hounds from Perry Barr and Swindon in particular. If Henlow continues to trade, it will presumably be offered four meetings.

Where do all the extra dogs come from?

(It is known that promoter Kevin Boothby has been snapping up kennels and trainers in recent months and he is characteristically bullish over the opportunities ahead.)

Finances

What of the finances?

While SIS will unquestionably suffer significantly from the loss of Entain revenue, they have long term contracts with a string of other firms, notably Bet365. Only this morning they announced a new long term deal with Betfred.

We shouldn’t be too surprised at the moving landscape.

In my experience, greyhound folk fail to fully appreciate bookmaker ‘pragmatism’.

History shows that at least one company has also been prepared to leave the pack if it suited them. It’s just business!

(There is a story about a historical stand-off between Ladbrokes and ARC over horseracing fixtures. A decision that cost the bookies an absolute fortune. Their rivals all cashed in and Ladbrokes never recovered a chunk of that market)

When Towcester host the Derby, all the major firms will be seeking a deal with SIS.

As for the finances for the SIS tracks, it is also worth remembering that there is a significant difference between the payments for different slots.

Typically, afternoons are much better payers than mornings – up to £500 a race (allegedly).

The most lucrative SIS Friday and Saturday night meetings – always demanded by Entain for their own tracks – will probably be split between Oxford and Towcester.

So although the SIS cake may be smaller, the portions will be bigger and richer.

‘Product’

This is the most interesting aspect to consider but difficult to quantify.

Firstly – if we are looking at major quality races, the SIS coverage will be decimated by the loss of the Entain portfolio.

Think of the PGR and Cat One races at Crayford, Romford, Monmore and Hove. How important are they to bookmaker turnover?

Seriously – how important?

How will RPGTV respond without that quality of product?

Based on this year 43 of the 59 Cat 1 races will be on the PGR service.

Will Towcester and Oxford push on and Doncaster, Harlow, Askern and Valley bring back more opens?

Easier said than done – not just at their tracks – minor opens struggle to fill everywhere.

I have heard it suggested that RPGTV may be able to buy-in PGR product. Despite acknowledging the pragmatism of the bookies – I don’t think it will stretch that far.

There seems to be genuine animosity between SIS and ARC, and that goes back a lot longer than 2016.

As I have written previously, I don’t see Entain (the bookmaker business) being keen to finance a second greyhound channel.

So the whispers about a ‘red button’ option on SKY Racing are only logical. Quite what that will look like though is anyone’s guess.

As for RPGTV – don’t be surprised if the ‘Sporty Stuff’ banner is soon replacing the ‘RPGTV’ emblem altogether.

So are there any conclusions to come from these 1,400 words?

I will make three.

• Whatever January 1 looks like, it will bear little resemblance to July 1 when everyone knows what is demanded and what is achievable.
• We WILL lose tracks. We may briefly have 22, but there won’t be that many a year from today.
• The ‘too much racing’ issue is not about to disappear any time soon. In fact it promises to get worse in the short term.