It takes a strong dog to win a Towcester Derby and are we beginning to see signs of some hounds going backwards while others are progressing? – writes Star editor Floyd Amphlett.
Now I should stress that my opinions cannot be confirmed by my betting account, current or historic, but there is some evidence to support this particular theory.
Go back a year to the 2022 final won by Romeo Magico and look at his progess between the rounds: 29.84, 29.29, 29.40, 29.11, 29.06, 28.95.
And before someone says ‘Doh, have you checked Saturday’s results?’, I have to say I think Magico was particularly unlucky after a shocking break and then missing out by a rapidly reducing three quarters of a length with at least two of those in front of him, being as strong late as he was, notably his own sister.
In fact, of the 24 qualifiers, 13 went slower in the second half of the race compared to their previous run.
Is that evidence of anything? Dunno really.
Returning to last year’s final and who else was in there? Priceless Jet, Hello Hammond and Savana Beau. All of whom would have preferred an extra 100 metres or more. Then there was the classy Kildare, a front running 550 performer. He did clock his fastest time in the decider, 29.09, but had 29.11 form in the second round, 29.16 in the fastest semi and had no excuse in defeat.
As for the previous winner, Thorn Falcon, he was a powerful strong dog for whom 500 metres was a bare minimum. By his second season, he had lost much of his early, and although he looked a nailed-on stayer in the making, connections weren’t enthusiastic about putting a 39 kilo hound over 575 at Romford. (Patrick really isn’t into stayers!).
I have heard it suggested that Shelbourne Park is a ‘tougher’ Derby based on winning times. Only one hound has ever broken 29.00 for the Irish Derby trip, Pestana (28.99). But that is misleading. Although the Irish Derby is almost three metres further, that isn’t where the runners stop chasing. The Shelbourne pick-up is just off the second bend. At Towcester it is a long way into the backstraight.
Now you don’t need me to identify which hounds seem to be struggling, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a couple ‘off colours’ by next weekend. But they hopefully won’t include the Derby favourite Swords Rex whose ‘from halfway’ third round run was his quickest to date. We will publish the full list tomorrow
So that is the theory . . . . though it may well be in shreds by 7.15pm next Saturday. It’s all about opinions!
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* Unluckiest third round hound – Super Nova with a 29.45, would have qualified in six of the other heats (and dead heated in the seventh).
* Six of the eight third round winners (75%) led all the way, the highest percentage of the competition thus far. That compares to 5/16 (31%) in the second round and 16/31 (52%) in the first round
Winning traps: T1-13, T2-9, T3-16, T4-8, T5-6, T6-3
CLICK ON RESULT TO WATCH VIDEO
SWORDS REX blasts to 28.93 in the opening heat Photo: © Steve Nash
BRINKLEYS MAGIC (t3) shades Clona Duke (t4) going into the first bend on his way to an emphatic 28.79 success in heat 2 Photo: © Steve Nash
Graham and Nicky Holland get a water soaked towel and some refreshment for winner Romeo Hanzo on a warm evening for the Derby 48 stage. Photo: © Steve Nash
DISTANT PODGE (t5) leads at the first bend in heat 6 Photo: © Steve Nash
MYSTICAL MARIO’s 4.01 sectional propels him into a first bend lead with winner Fabulous Azurra (t1) close up, in the concluding heat where Romeo Magico (not in shot) bowed out after a slow start – although kennelmate Ballyhimikin Leo (t5) qualified in third Photo: © Steve Nash
Racegoers line the parade route to see 2022 Derby champ Romeo Magico (t2) enter the arena with Rachel Holland (accompanied by mum Nicky with Ballyhimikin Leo). Alas a few minutes later he was to bow out in fourth behind his litter sister Fabulous Azurra (red jacket far right with Ria Tillett) . Photo: © Steve Nash
